Sudan
This paper is part of a series of crisis analysis briefing papers by Mercy Corps following the outbreak of conflict in Sudan in April 2023. It is an update to satellite imagery analysis conducted in July 2023, measuring vegetation levels in agricultural areas to better understand the impact of conflict on agriculture. This update assesses changes since the previous analysis, to help anticipate upcoming challenges with the harvest season, emphasizing the critical role of agricultural production and livelihoods in preventing further deterioration of food security.
Key Findings
● Although until the end of July 2023, the average vegetation index across the whole of Sudan was higher than previous years, from August, vegetation levels started to fall below previous years.
● Comparing vegetation levels in previous years to the national cereal production indicates that there may be some correlation between higher vegetation levels and better harvests, though this has not been statistically tested and is indicative only.
● Until mid-September 2023, the downward trend in vegetation indicates that the harvest is unlikely to be as positive as last year.
● Within the country, vegetation compared to previous years has declined most notably in Khartoum, as well as in certain hotspots in east Sudan. Across the east, in September the vegetation index anomaly (difference with 10-year average) declined in comparison to July.
This is despite the FAO Agricultural Stress Index showing smaller areas affected by severe drought in September compared to July, indicating that non-climate related factors may be affecting vegetation, such as the impact of conflict on irrigated agriculture. In comparison, agriculture in the Darfurs and Kordofans is typically rainfed, and vegetation indexes in September were higher than ten-year averages (though the increase was less than in July).
● Gedaref state, a key producer of sorghum, has been relatively unaffected by direct conflict.
Whilst at the end of July, vegetation levels were higher than 10-year averages, by midSeptember, some areas in the north and west had started to decline. With the upcoming harvest season, a critical issue will be ensuring that farmers are supported to harvest and sell their produce, given that key sorghum markets such as Khartoum and El Obeid may continue to be disrupted by conflict.
Sudan + 1 more
Sudan
Sudan
Sudan + 2 more
ReliefWeb’s Terms & Conditions.
© 2023 all rights reserved.
Related Platforms
Other OCHA Services
